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ORMAT TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (ORA)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 revenue was $249.7M, a strong beat vs S&P Global consensus $234.3M (+$15.5M, +6.6%); GAAP diluted EPS was $0.39 vs consensus $0.383 (modest beat), while adjusted diluted EPS was $0.41 *.
- Strength came from Product (+66.6% YoY revenue) and Energy Storage (+108.1% YoY) as storage margins rose to 39.4% on seasonal Bottleneck contributions and higher PJM merchant prices; Electricity grew 1.5% but margins compressed to 25.4% given Stillwater enhancement work, Imperial Valley grid storm impact, curtailments and lower Puna rates .
- Guidance raised: total revenues to $960–$980M and adjusted EBITDA to $575–$593M; segment mix revised (Electricity lowered to $700–$705M; Product raised to $190–$200M; Storage raised to $70–$75M) .
- Strategic catalysts: hyperscaler PPAs in final negotiations (target magnitude ~250 MW) expected to be signed in coming months, and EGS partnerships (SLB pilot at Desert Peak; Sage collaboration) to expand geothermal addressable market and serve AI/data center loads .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Product segment revenue surged 66.6% YoY to $62.2M with margin expansion to 21.7% on improved contract profitability; backlog rose to ~$295M, supported by a new ~$86M contract .
Quote: “Our product segment backlog stands at $295 million…primarily driven by a large contract we signed” . - Energy Storage revenue doubled (+108% YoY to $20.4M) and gross margin improved to 39.4% driven by Bottleneck’s seasonal revenue profile and stronger PJM prices; Lower Rio 60MW/120MWh reached COD .
Quote: “The energy storage segment reported gross margin of 39.4%...seasonally high margins at the Bottleneck storage facility and higher merchant prices in the PGM region” . - Raised FY2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance on segment strength; declared $0.12 dividend payable Dec 1, 2025 .
What Went Wrong
- Electricity gross margin fell to 25.4% (vs 30.2% last year) due to a $5.5M temporary generation reduction (Stillwater enhancements; Imperial Valley storm grid failure; curtailment) and ~$3.2M lower Puna energy rates .
- Net benefit from sale of tax credits declined YoY in Q3 ($14.4M vs $19.8M), and reduced benefits from prior-year battery supplier settlement tempered adjusted EBITDA growth (+0.6% YoY to $138.4M) .
- FEOC-related uncertainty persists in storage supply chains, requiring safe harboring and procurement flexibility; storage market still aligning to new rules .
Financial Results
Consolidated Actuals (GAAP and Adjusted)
Actuals vs S&P Global Consensus
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Segment Breakdown – Q3 2025
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We delivered a 17.9% increase in revenue, 13.3% increase in operating income, and 9.3% growth in net income…driven by sustained improvements in both our energy storage and product segments” .
- “Our product segment backlog stands at $295 million…representing a 79% increase compared to the third quarter of 2024” .
- “Together with SLB, we intend to…jointly develop a pilot at an Ormat facility…scaling EGS solutions to enable widespread EGS adoption” .
Q&A Highlights
- Hyperscaler PPAs: Management is “very close” on a couple of PPAs, with announcements targeted in the next couple of months .
- EGS pilots: SLB pilot at Desert Peak (site chosen; permitting/development underway; pilot wells targeted H2 2026); Sage to run a separate pilot near an Ormat facility; scale could reach hundreds of MW if successful .
- Electricity margins outlook: Q4 typically strongest; improvement vs Q3 expected with less curtailment, though Stillwater not yet at full output; Q4 margins likely below 2024 levels .
- Product segment trajectory: Elevated revenue run-rate (~$200M) and long-term margin target 17–20% after an exceptional 2025; backlog supported by Asia and New Zealand EPCs and future Indonesia BOT recognition .
- Financing/tax credits: 2025 tax credits ~$167M; starting 2026 expected proceeds include ~$100M asset sale (New Zealand) plus ~$70M of ITC/credits, covering most CapEx; no equity need anticipated .
Estimates Context
- Q3 2025: Revenue beat — Actual $249.7M vs consensus $234.3M (+$15.5M, +6.6%); EPS beat — Primary EPS $0.41 vs $0.383 (+$0.027). Ten EPS estimates and eight revenue estimates informed consensus for Q3 *.
- Prior quarters showed consistent beats: Q2 revenue $234.0M vs $221.6M; EPS $0.48 vs $0.380; Q1 revenue $229.8M vs $227.5M; EPS $0.68 vs $0.590*.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Where estimates may need to adjust:
- Raise FY Product and Storage assumptions following segment outperformance and COD additions; modestly lower Electricity given curtailment/storm impacts and Stillwater upgrade timing .
- Incorporate higher storage gross profit trajectory (>25% full-year) and seasonal concentration, plus bottleneck contract timing .
- Reflect updated consolidated guidance midpoint: revenue +$15M and adjusted EBITDA +$12M vs prior midpoint .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- The print was clean: broad-based revenue strength with notable beats vs consensus and guidance raised; strong near-term narrative in Product and Storage; Electricity headwinds are transitory and easing into Q4 * .
- Expect catalysts from hyperscaler PPAs; recontracting opportunities (e.g., Blue Mountain post-2029) at >$100/MWh PPA pricing should expand margins ROIC .
- Storage profitability is improving structurally (contracted + merchant mix, seasonal Bottleneck effect), with full-year gross profit likely above 25%; watch FEOC policy but safe harbor mitigates near-term risk .
- EGS optionality is significant; SLB/Sage pilots de-risk commercialization and could unlock large-scale growth supporting AI/data center demand; timelines into 2026–2027 .
- Balance sheet/liquidity support self-funded growth via tax credits and project financings; dividend maintained at $0.12/share .
- Near-term trading: stock should respond to PPA announcements and any EGS pilot milestones; monitor Q4 Electricity margin recovery vs 2024 baseline and Stillwater’s ramp .
S&P Global disclaimer: All consensus estimate values (*) are retrieved from S&P Global. Surprises are computed using S&P consensus and company-reported actuals.